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Erlin

Game Theory: Your Strategic Playbook for Everyday Life

"The hardest part of any game is figuring out what the other player thinks you will do next."


Why bother with game theory?

You already use it—every time you split a bill, haggle over rent, decide whether to text first, or hold serve at match‑point. The formal apparatus of game theory turns those gut hunches into a clear framework so that you can:

  • List every plausible move (including ones you might miss in the moment)
  • Anticipate reactions instead of guessing
  • Pick rationally—maximising upside while limiting downside

Think of it as a mental Swiss‑Army knife for social life, finance, politics, and even Friday‑night plans.


A thirty‑second timeline

  • 1944 — John von Neumann & Oskar Morgenstern publish Theory of Games and Economic Behavior, birthing the field
  • 1950 — John Nash proves his equilibrium theorem (yes, the A Beautiful Mind guy)
  • 1960‑1980s — Economists adapt the tools to bargaining, auctions, and international trade
  • 1990‑2020 — Evolutionary biologists, AI engineers, and political scientists push game theory mainstream

The three building blocks

1. Players

Anyone whose choice affects the outcome—yourself, your mates, rival firms, entire countries.

2. Strategies

Every action a player can take. For a dinner debate that might mean "order sushi," "order pizza," or "skip dinner."

3. Payoffs

The result each player receives once all choices are revealed—measured in utility, not just cash.

Example – Choosing where to eat

  • If you both choose pizza, you score 3 happiness points while your friend scores 4
  • If you pick pizza and they pick sushi, you get 1 and they get 2
  • If you pick sushi and they pick pizza, you earn 2 and they earn 1
  • If you both pick sushi, you each do pretty well: you score 4, your friend 3

Those numbers don't need to be exact—only to rank outcomes in the right order.


Utility: the personal scorecard

Utility ranks outcomes by preference. A £50 win may thrill a student (utility = 10) but bore a hedge‑fund manager (utility = 2). Game theory only cares about those relative rankings, not the absolute pounds.


Types of games you meet in the wild

  • Zero‑sum: the pie is fixed; your gain is my loss (tennis, most poker hands)
  • Non‑zero‑sum: cooperation can enlarge or shrink the pie (business partnerships, climate deals)
  • Cooperative: players can strike binding agreements (forming a cartel, planning a group holiday)
  • Non‑cooperative: everyone acts alone (auction bidding, casual dating)
  • Repeated: the same interaction happens again and again—past behaviour shapes trust (weekly five‑a‑side football)
  • Sequential: moves unfold one after another (property bidding wars)

How to spot an equilibrium

  • Dominant strategy: a move that beats all your other moves, no matter what others do
  • Nash equilibrium: no player can unilaterally improve their payoff by switching strategies
  • Minimax: in zero‑sum games, choose the play that maximises your worst‑case payoff

At equilibrium everyone feels, "If I changed now, I'd be worse off—given what the rest are doing."


Mixed strategies: calculated unpredictability

When no pure strategy dominates, sprinkle in randomness. For example, serve wide 40% of the time and down‑the‑T 60% so your tennis opponent can't camp on one side. The mix is chosen to make rivals indifferent and therefore unable to exploit you.


Real‑life snapshots

  • Late‑night Uber standoff: both rider and driver hope the other cancels to avoid a £5 fee. Classic "Chicken"
  • Dating apps: you decide whether to send the first message without knowing the other person's interest level. A Bayesian game of hidden information
  • Trading the market: you want profit even if prices crash; minimax thinking limits worst‑case loss
  • Group holiday to Ibiza: friends must agree on a destination and split costs fairly—cooperative game territory, where concepts like the Shapley value help divide gains

Levelling up: advanced lenses (one‑liners)

  • Incomplete information → Bet on beliefs about hidden traits (sealed‑bid auctions)
  • Evolutionary dynamics → Why "tit‑for‑tat" thrives in repeated dilemmas (cultural norms)
  • Mechanism design → Flip the script: craft rules so strategic players reveal truth (carbon credits, e‑Bay)

Key take‑aways checklist

  • Identify players, strategies, payoffs before debating options
  • Translate outcomes into utility, not just money
  • Ask: "Can anyone switch and do better?" If not, you've found equilibrium
  • Introduce randomness when predictability becomes a liability
  • Remember: most real‑world conflicts are non‑zero‑sum—look for ways to expand the pie

Further reading & tools

  1. Thinking Strategically by Dixit & Nalebuff — lively intro without heavy maths
  2. Nicky Case's interactive "Evolution of Trust" — play through the Prisoner's Dilemma
  3. A Course in Game Theory by Osborne & Rubinstein — for the mathematically inclined
  4. Try the online "Colonel Blotto" simulator to feel mixed‑strategy warfare

Final word

Game theory won't predict every twist of human emotion, but it sharpens your odds—at the poker table, in the boardroom, on a first date, or queuing for a 3 a.m. kebab on Old Street. Treat it as a discipline of structured curiosity: always ask, "If our roles were reversed, what would I do?" Master that habit and you'll rarely play life on the back foot.

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